Charlotte EBCS: First Quarter 2025 Report

February 03, 2025 / RERI Research Team

Charlotte County Executive Business Climate Survey First Quarter 2025 Report

Real GDP increased by 2.8 percent in 2024, driven by consumer spending in both goods and services and increases in investment, government spending, and net exports, continuing the growth trend in the last three years and aligned with the long-term growth rate experienced in the US. The nation’s unemployment rate declined from 4.2 percent in October to 4.1 percent in December 2024, staying within the range often considered “full employment” by economists. Consumer Sentiment also continued to rally, rising 3.9 points from September 2024 to 74.0 in December 2024. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported steady growth in small business sentiment, with its index reaching 105.1 in December, the highest number in the last 6 years.

On the other hand, inflation increased in the fourth quarter, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.5 percentage points to 2.9 percent and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reaching 2.4 percent in November. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximizing employment, met twice during the fourth quarter, lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points in each meeting. In the first meeting of 2025, the committee decided to maintain the current rate at 4.25 – 4.5 percent. Projection materials from the FOMC’s December meeting suggest the committee might reign in rate cuts in 2025, showing only two projected rate cuts throughout the year. This cautious approach reflects growing uncertainty surrounding policy proposals from the new administration, which could potentially exert upward pressure on inflation.

As the local economy enters its peak season and following the presidential election, the Executive Business Climate Index (EBCI) for Charlotte County was measured at 54.1. Respondents indicated that current economic and industry conditions were subpar, with 35 and 38 percent, respectively, stating that conditions had worsened compared to a year ago. However, outlooks are more optimistic, as 53 percent of respondents expect economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months, while 51 percent anticipate better industry conditions. Additionally, 38 percent of respondents foresee an increase in future investment trends over the next year.

In this quarter, the Special Topics survey focused on AI use. The results show that while the majority of businesses utilized AI in some form, only a small portion of businesses saw significant contributions from AI tools and planned to invest further in the future. Some businesses do demonstrate trust in AI tools in some form or capacity. All in all, these results demonstrate that there is a gap in understanding and effective use of AI tools to improve productivity and gains in their bottom lines.

Downloads:

Charlotte County Executive Business Climate Survey First Quarter 2025 Report

Acknowledgments:

We would like to thank all of the executives that participated in our survey. Without your continued feedback each quarter, our surveys would not be possible.