Issue Brief: Population and Income Migration Dynamics

February 03, 2025 / RERI Research Team

Florida continues to have a reputation as one of the best places to live and work. WalletHub ranked Florida as the second-best state to live in because of its strong labor market, low tax rates, and high median household income growth. In addition, The Motley Fool ranked Florida as the best state to retire to, supported by Mark Wilson, President and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce. Wilson stated: “Florida’s ranking as the best state to retire in is reflected in an exceptional blend of factors. With its favorable low-tax environment, world-class healthcare institutions, robust transportation infrastructure, America’s number one rated higher education system, convenient airports and cruise ports, and access to stunning beaches, Florida offers retirees the perfect setting to enjoy their golden years.”

This is reinforced by data we have collected, which ranks Florida as the number one state in the U.S. for net income migration. Change of Address requests indicate Florida has seen large gains in population from 2018 to 2022. However, as Florida attracts new residents, the rapid population growth also contributes to higher prices. The low cost of living that used to attract people to Florida has waned, and those who moved to Florida in search of more affordable living could be looking elsewhere.

Moreover, the Florida Chamber Foundation has projected that Florida will likely experience population declines in the following age bands: 0-9, 25-34, and 50-59. If this out-bound migration becomes a pattern, it could be a major economic challenge for Florida as these key populations are those who are starting their careers (25-34) or producing the most economic value (50-59). Florida Chamber cited high cost of housing and perceived limited in-state job opportunities for early-career professionals as the main factors contributing to this population decline.

Another metric that supports this is where these people are moving. Latest data shows that Florida lost the most people to Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. These are states with either no income tax and/or a lower cost of living than Florida. We expect to see a continued outflow of people to these and other similar states.

In this issue brief, we analyze Change of Address (COA) requests from the United States Postal Service (USPS) to estimate net population migration from 2018 to 2023. We also use data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to calculate net income migration from 2016 to 2022. Both analyses illustrate findings for Southwest Florida and at the state level.

The results show a recent decline in net residential COA requests, which implies a decrease in net population migration, as well as a decrease in net income migration. This was true for both Southwest Florida and Florida. This suggests that population growth is slowing, which could pose significant economic challenges in the future.

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Issue Brief: Population and Income Migration Dynamics

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